I am no Nostradamus. But after some 45 years of analysing South China Sea issues, I have drawn some conclusions about what will – and will not – happen in the region in the foreseeable future.First some context. In the mid-1970s, when I first began following the issues, they were relatively isolated disputes over ownership of specks on the atlas. They were not major security concerns for either the claimants or outside maritime powers like the United States.However, over the ensuing decades,…
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